RMM access still worked (doesn't rely on domain auth). Checked time service:
w32tm /query /status
Leap Indicator: 3(not synchronized)
Stratum: 0 (unspecified)
Last Successful Sync Time: unspecified
Source: Free-running System Clock
"Free-running System Clock" and "Last Successful Sync Time: unspecified" - Windows Time service had never successfully synced since boot. Trying to sync from DC, but couldn't authenticate to request time because... the time was wrong. Classic chicken-and-egg.